Is the Bitcoin super cycle over? Fidelity warns: 2026 may be a cold winter, supporting 65,000-75,000 magnesium
Fidelity Macro Director Jurrien Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin peaked at US$125,000 in October and will enter the off-market year in 2026, with US$65,000 to US$75,000 becoming a key line of defense; during the same period, gold rose 65% annually, resisting the decline and suppressing Bitcoin.
(Preliminary summary: Breaking news! The U.S. SEC has included Bitcoin mining within the scope of securities laws and prosecuted the mining company VBit for defrauding 95.6 million magnesium)
(Background supplement: The Bank of Japan "raised interest rates by one yard to 0.75%" and interest rates hit a 30-year high, and Bitcoin soared to US$87,500)
Contents of this article
Is the crypto market really going to cool down? Jurrien Timmer, global macro director at Fidelity, released the latest report on the 19th, stating that he believes that the current Bitcoin four-year cycle, which began with the halving in 2024, has ended in October 2025 with a high of $125,000. This conclusion pours a bucket of cold water on bulls still hoping for a $150,000 breakout.
While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025
Peak 18 months after halving
According to CoinDesk, Jurrien Timmer A comparison of historical data points out that Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 after about 18 months starting from the halving in April 2024. The time and price are consistent with past patterns.
If we use the long-term trend line from 2013 as a benchmark, this high also happens to be where the 145-month uptrend ended. The current level of US$80,000 has dropped by more than 30% from the top, and the trading volume and on-chain activity have shrunk simultaneously, indicating that the momentum of buying orders has ebbed.
$65,000 to $75,000 line of defense
Jurrien Timmer defines 2026 as the "off year." He expects that the trend will not collapse, but will extend sideways or decline for a year, recreating the atmosphere of low volatility and low returns in 2019 and 2022. The report named the $65,000 to $75,000 range as mid-term support; a fall below $65,000 would wipe out most of the gains in 2025.
For retail investors who only entered the market at the October high, this correction means significant book losses. But for corporate funds, this will be a window to re-accumulate chips and reduce average costs.
Gold rose 65% annually
In contrast to Bitcoin’s liquidity being drained, physical gold ended happily in 2025. Gold prices have climbed from about $2,600 at the beginning of the year to $4,381 in October, a 65% gain for the year. Jurrien Timmer pointed out that gold has held on to almost all of its gains in the recent pullback, demonstrating its resilience to geopolitical and tariff risks. He emphasized:
Gold is experiencing a structural bull market. It is not just a short-term surge, but has demonstrated its resilience to Bitcoin under macro uncertainty.
The above content is his personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise caution in your decision-making during times of high volatility.
